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درباره این کتاب:
Drought
risk management involves three pillars:
drought early warning, drought
vulnerability and risk assessment, and
drought preparedness, mitigation, and
response. This book collects in one
place a description of all the key
components of the first pillar, and
describes strategies for fitting these
pieces together. The best modern drought
early warning systems incorporate and
integrate a broad array of environmental
information sources: weather station
observations, satellite imagery, land
surface and crop model simulations, and
weather and climate model forecasts, and
analyze this information in
context-relevant ways that take into
account exposure and vulnerability.
Drought Early Warning and Forecasting:
Theory and Practice assembles a
comprehensive overview of these
components, providing examples drawn
from the Famine Early Warning Systems
Network and the United States Drought
Monitor. This book simultaneously
addresses the physical, social, and
information management aspects of
drought early warning, and informs
readers about the tools, techniques, and
conceptual models required to
effectively identify, predict, and
communicate potential drought-related
disasters.
This book is a key text for postgraduate
scientists and graduate and advanced
undergraduate students in hydrology,
geography, earth sciences, meteorology,
climatology, and environmental sciences
programs. Professionals dealing with
disaster management and drought
forecasting will also find this book
beneficial to their work.
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Acknowledgments
1 Droughts, governance, disasters, and
response systems 1.1 20th-century
droughts—disasters and the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation 1.2 21st-century
droughts—developing effective early
warning systems References 2 Drought early
warning—definitions, challenges, and
opportunities 2.1 Definitions—supply and
demand, the many flavors of “dry” 2.2
Droughts—when water demand exceeds water
supply 2.3 Slow-onset disasters 2.4
Quantifying drought magnitude in multiple
dimensions 2.5 Impact-based sectoral or
disciplinary definitions of drought 2.6
Contrasting recent U.S. and southern
African droughts 2.7 Chapter review
References 3 Drought early warning systems
3.1 The U.S. National Integrated Drought
Information System 3.2 The Famine Early
Warning Systems Network 3.3 Famine Early
Warning Systems Network Food Security
Outlooks 3.4 Multistage early warning—an
Ethiopia example References Further
reading 4 Tools of the trade 1—weather and
climate forecasts 4.1 Examples of
operational drought forecasting systems
4.1.1 U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s
monthly and seasonal drought outlook 4.1.2
Famine Early Warning Systems Network food
insecurity outlook 4.1.3 Miscellaneous
application of weather and climate
forecasts for drought forecasting 4.2
Methods of weather and climate forecasts
4.2.1 Climatological forecasts 4.2.2
Persistence-based forecasts 4.2.3 Analog
forecasts 4.2.4 Statistical forecasts
4.2.5 Dynamical forecasting 4.3 Sources of
weather and climate forecast skill 4.4
Summary References Further reading 5 Tools
of the trade 2—land surface models 5.1
Introduction 5.2 An overview of land
surface models 5.3 Operational land
surface models–based drought monitors
5.3.1 National Center for Environmental
Prediction’s North American Land Data
Assimilation System (NLDAS) drought
monitor 5.3.2 Africa Flood and Drought
monitor 5.3.3 Global soil moisture
monitoring 5.3.4 The Famine Early Warning
Systems Network land data assimilation
system 5.4 Limitations of drought
monitoring using land surface models 5.5
Summary References 6 Tools of the trade
3—mapping exposure and vulnerability 6.1
Exposure and vulnerability 6.1.1
Exposure—an example for East Africa 6.1.2
Vulnerability 6.1.3 An Ethiopia case study
6.2 Conclusion References 7
Theory—understanding atmospheric demand in
a warming world 7.1 Background 7.2
Reference evapotranspiration resistance
terms 7.3 Defining reference crop
evapotranspiration 7.4 The FAO 56
Penman–Monteith formulation 7.5
Temperature alone is insufficient to
estimate reference evapotranspiration 7.6
Reference evapotranspiration
decompositions and Morton’s complementary
hypothesis 7.7 Spatiotemporal variations
in reference evapotranspiration and actual
evapotranspiration, and their relationship
to vuln... References 8 Theory—indices for
measuring drought severity 8.1
Introduction 8.1.1 Consider multiple
expressions of each individual data source
8.2 Length of record and nonstationary
systematic errors 8.2.1 Frequently used
satellite and “combination” drought
indicators and indices 8.3 Per capita
water availability 8.4 Summary and
discussion References 9 Sources of drought
early warning skill, staged prediction
systems, and an example for Somalia 9.1
The ocean as a source of skill 9.2 Skill
from persistent atmospheric conditions 9.3
Predictive skill from the land surface 9.4
Staged opportunities for prediction
support defense-in-depth 9.4.1 Stage 1:
long-lead climate forecast 9.4.2 Stage 2:
short-lead climate forecasts 9.4.3 Stage
3: mid-season climate/weather forecasts
9.4.4 Stage 4: late-season impact
assessments 9.5 Summary: staged strategies
for effective early warning 9.6 Conclusion
References 10 Practice—evaluating forecast
skill 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Deterministic
forecast skill scores 10.2.1 Pearson’s
correlation 10.2.1.1 Higher skill at lower
lead 10.2.1.2 Lower skill in forecasting
terrestrial precipitation 10.2.2
Spearman’s rank correlation 10.2.3
Equitable threat score (Gilbert skill
score) 10.3 Probabilistic forecast skill
scores 10.3.1 Brier skill score 10.3.2
Ranked probability skill score 10.3.3
Reliability diagram 10.4 Summary
References 11 Practice—integrating
observations and climate forecasts 11.1
Approach 11.2 Bias-correction and
downscaling methods 11.2.1 Bias-correction
and spatial downscaling method 11.2.1.1
Bias-correction 11.2.1.2 Spatial
downscaling 11.2.2 Constructed analog
method 11.2.3 Multivariate Adaptive
Constructed Analogs 11.2.4 Bayesian
merging 11.3 An example: The NASA
Hydrological and Forecast Analysis System
11.4 Summary References 12
Practice—actionable information and
decision-making networks 12.1 Actionable
information and the three pillars 12.2
Actionable information and decision-making
networks—an example from famine early
warning in East Africa 12.3 Conclusion
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